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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.