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The direst possible consequences of the global heating for the UK have been outlined by experts, including a blistering 4C jump in mean temperatures to a 2-metre surge in sea levels. Another scenario predicts a decline of 6C in temperatures following the collapse of key Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact food production and energy demand.

Plausible Outcomes, Not Predictions

These impacts, a number of which are linked to climate tipping points, are seen as improbable but possible. The scientists said that these scenarios filled a gap in planning that had left the UK unprepared for worst-case results.

"The worst-case scenarios we have mapped aren’t predictions, but they are credible," stated the lead researcher who directed the study. "The nation has been formulating policy in the absence of the methods to assess catastrophic outcomes. We've now provided decision-makers what they need to plan for climate outcomes they pray never occur, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Suite of Harsh Climate Projections

Another collection of severe models sets out the potential extent of severe conditions between now and the close of the 2100s. These suggest that thermometer readings could soar in certain periods by up to 6C above the norm, while rainfall could be three times typical amounts.

The likelihood of the worst-case outcomes coming to pass cannot be precisely determined due to unknown factors about what steps will be enacted to address global heating and how the planet's climate will behave. This research was compared to national security risk assessments or resilience checks for the banking sector.

Key Possibility Highlights

• Severe Heating: Worldwide averages exceeding 4C by 2100 could transpire if climate action breaks down or if powerful amplifying effects such as the Amazon rainforest perishing release its enormous store of carbon. This would cause severe and lengthy heatwaves and droughts hitting the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A key circulation system, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), is losing strength and showing signs of collapse due to climate change. A collapse starting around 2030 would lead to a 6C cooling in the UK. "Agriculture would face immense difficulties and water resources would be completely altered," noted the professor.
• Sudden Ocean Inundation: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if glaciers in the Arctic and Antarctic disintegrate quickly, flooding coastal cities and towns. Unlike the other scenarios, this risk is already known by planners.
• Clean Air Warming: Global averages could also be driven up by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is drastically reduced. This paradoxical outcome occurs because pollution particles from fossil fuel combustion scatter solar radiation from reaching the ground.

Planning for the Worst

The severe models could be applied to guide the construction of critical national infrastructure, such as housing developments, energy plants and urban drainage systems. Knowledge about these climate risks could also accelerate the drive to slash greenhouse gas emissions.

The analysis formulated the severe projections using a blend of observed and historical experience, digital projections and established principles. The possibilities exclude potential global problems like the global food shortages and resource wars.

The research was commissioned as part of a national risk assessment framework. Earlier reports have stated that not enough attention was being allocated to high-consequence, low-probability risks.

An independent advisory body has stated that the UK must "prepare for two degrees of warming" and examine the dangers for four degrees. Earlier government strategies have been labeled being "inadequate" by certain experts.

A government spokesperson said: "The climate emergency is at the center of this government’s agenda, both building resilience and establishing itself as a renewable energy leader. It is crucial that the UK is prepared for the consequences."