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A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."