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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning saw its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another sovereign country and abduct its leader – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the headless administration are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. The international community may regret it if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.