Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Decline Over a Third In Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Figures

The mean number of everyday homicides each month in the country has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh administrative figures. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have cautioned that homicide figures might not point to improved countrywide security.

Marked Drop in Daily Averages

There was an average of close to 55 killings a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidency in September. This data was provided by the chief of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we have seen during these months is remarkably notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that in November the smallest number of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Fierce cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's heavily military campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in the past few years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than the US. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety approach for an seemingly steeper drop in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President said: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and we have specific tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Increased collaboration between government agencies.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security experts cautioned that relying on homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is particularly true given the increase in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be very good information if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and think: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the identical period the previous year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not reliable for estimating the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the will to properly identify and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly averages of daily killings was similarly concerning because it could obscure periods when there were especially spiking levels of killings.

“Using the daily average makes surges of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to government data. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

But in spite of these measures, Mexico is still beset by high violence, with several regions in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

A short time later, thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and across the nation to show their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to create a story of safety. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas said.